By Keel Research Team
Updated October 15, 2026Strategy backtest explorer
The most profitable crypto trading strategy, coin by coin
Keel, a strategy builder for Hyperliquid perpetuals, backtested 12 library strategies on each of 20 coins, after fees, slippage and funding. No single strategy won everywhere: MACD Crossover was the most consistent, clearing our bar on 7 of 20 coins, and on 11 coins nothing cleared it. The most profitable single result, Ichimoku Cloud on ENA at +580.4%, also fell 73.5% from its peak along the way.
Coins where it cleared the barof 20 tested
- MACD Crossover7
- Supertrend Bollinger4
- Breakout4
- Confluence3
- Supertrend2
- Ichimoku Cloud2
- ADX Trend2
- Stochastic1
- Mean Reversion1
- MA Crossover0
- RSI0
- AI Trading Bot0
Cleared means a Sharpe of 1.0 or better on at least 10 trades, after fees, slippage and funding, 2024-08-15 to 2026-09-29.
Every result
Filter by coin, strategy or metric
240 backtests: 12 library strategies, each run on 20 coins on its own.
26 of 240 results cleared the bar, across 12 strategies and 20 coins. The highest Sharpe that cleared it was Stochastic on HYPE, Sharpe 2.23 on 10 trades.
| Strategy | Coin | Sharpe | Return | Max DD | Trades | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stochasticcleared | HYPE | 2.23 | +35.0% | −5.4% | 10 | low |
| Supertrendcleared | ENA | 1.64 | +81.5% | −11.5% | 47 | moderate |
| MACD Crossovercleared | HYPE | 1.59 | +39.4% | −6.4% | 92 | moderate |
| MACD Crossovercleared | DOGE | 1.49 | +39.7% | −8.8% | 84 | moderate |
| Stochastic | BTC | 1.49 | +5.2% | −1.3% | 5 | very low |
| Confluencecleared | XRP | 1.37 | +29.9% | −7.8% | 60 | moderate |
| Ichimoku Cloudcleared | ENA | 1.37 | +580.4% | −73.5% | 52 | moderate |
| Supertrend Bollingercleared | XRP | 1.35 | +40.3% | −8.8% | 24 | low |
| Ichimoku Cloudcleared | ETH | 1.28 | +204.3% | −29.5% | 32 | moderate |
| MACD Crossovercleared | PENGU | 1.26 | +35.1% | −9.0% | 61 | moderate |
| MACD Crossovercleared | ETH | 1.24 | +17.3% | −7.4% | 99 | moderate |
| Breakoutcleared | DOGE | 1.24 | +305.4% | −48.8% | 75 | moderate |
| Confluencecleared | ENA | 1.24 | +32.8% | −9.5% | 61 | moderate |
| Confluencecleared | WLD | 1.23 | +35.3% | −10.3% | 45 | moderate |
| MACD Crossovercleared | ENA | 1.21 | +42.7% | −11.2% | 85 | moderate |
| ADX Trendcleared | XRP | 1.18 | +25.9% | −10.5% | 63 | moderate |
| Breakoutcleared | WLD | 1.16 | +327.9% | −49.1% | 80 | moderate |
| Mean Reversioncleared | FARTCOIN | 1.16 | +18.7% | −5.9% | 89 | moderate |
| Supertrend Bollingercleared | PENGU | 1.16 | +34.3% | −15.0% | 26 | low |
| Breakoutcleared | PENGU | 1.13 | +216.8% | −69.5% | 84 | moderate |
| Breakoutcleared | kBONK | 1.12 | +268.9% | −55.2% | 79 | moderate |
| ADX Trendcleared | ENA | 1.10 | +35.1% | −13.7% | 73 | moderate |
| MACD Crossovercleared | WLD | 1.09 | +39.4% | −20.3% | 69 | moderate |
| Supertrendcleared | PENGU | 1.07 | +36.4% | −12.8% | 27 | low |
| Supertrend Bollingercleared | DOGE | 1.03 | +26.1% | −7.1% | 20 | low |
Showing 25 of 240 results
Each row is one library strategy run on one coin alone, from 2024-08-15 to 2026-09-29. Costs: 4.5bp fee + 4.5bp slippage per trade (9bp round-trip); funding included. A highlighted row cleared our bar: a Sharpe of 1.0 or better on at least 10 trades. Confidence follows the trade count: very low under 10 trades, low under 30, moderate under 100, and ok from 100 up.
Losing and wiped-out results stay in the table. 3 results lost most of the account and are marked wiped out, and 5 never traded at all on that coin. Click a strategy for its rules and full backtest, or a coin for every strategy on it.
By strategy
Which strategies worked on the most coins
A strategy that clears the bar on many coins is more believable than one great result on a single coin.
| Strategy | Cleared the bar | Made money | Median Sharpe | Best coin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MACD Crossover | 7 of 20 coins | 16 of 20 | 0.57 | HYPE, Sharpe 1.59 on 92 trades |
| Supertrend Bollinger | 4 of 20 coins | 17 of 20 | 0.40 | XRP, Sharpe 1.35 on 24 trades |
| Breakout | 4 of 20 coins | 8 of 20 | 0.16 | DOGE, Sharpe 1.24 on 75 trades |
| Confluence | 3 of 20 coins | 14 of 20 | 0.44 | XRP, Sharpe 1.37 on 60 trades |
| Supertrend | 2 of 20 coins | 16 of 20 | 0.62 | ENA, Sharpe 1.64 on 47 trades |
| Ichimoku Cloud | 2 of 20 coins | 9 of 20 | 0.39 | ENA, Sharpe 1.37 on 52 trades |
| ADX Trend | 2 of 20 coins | 11 of 20 | 0.33 | XRP, Sharpe 1.18 on 63 trades |
| Stochastic | 1 of 20 coins | 11 of 20 | 0.12 | HYPE, Sharpe 2.23 on 10 trades |
| Mean Reversion | 1 of 20 coins | 10 of 20 | 0.08 | FARTCOIN, Sharpe 1.16 on 89 trades |
| MA Crossover | 0 of 20 coins | 14 of 20 | 0.38 | HYPE, Sharpe 0.92 on 5 trades |
| RSI | 0 of 20 coins | 12 of 20 | 0.27 | DOGE, Sharpe 0.83 on 1 trades |
| AI Trading Bot | 0 of 20 coins | 14 of 20 | 0.21 | ENA, Sharpe 0.99 on 12 trades |
Made money counts the coins where the strategy ended with a positive return after costs, bar or no bar. The median Sharpe is the middle result across its coins, which says more about a strategy than its single best run. 3 library strategies are not here because they rank coins against each other and need a basket to work: Momentum Funding, Funding Carry and Momentum. Their own pages show them run as portfolios.
By coin
Which coins have a strategy that worked
On 11 of 20 coins, nothing we tested cleared the bar. We show those too.
- Ethena (ENA)6 of 12has a strategy that clearedBest: Supertrend, Sharpe 1.64 on 47 trades
- XRP4 of 12has a strategy that clearedBest: Confluence, Sharpe 1.37 on 60 trades
- PENGU4 of 12has a strategy that clearedBest: MACD Crossover, Sharpe 1.26 on 61 trades
- Dogecoin (DOGE)3 of 12has a strategy that clearedBest: MACD Crossover, Sharpe 1.49 on 84 trades
- Worldcoin (WLD)3 of 12has a strategy that clearedBest: Confluence, Sharpe 1.23 on 45 trades
- HYPE2 of 12has a strategy that clearedBest: Stochastic, Sharpe 2.23 on 10 trades
- Ethereum (ETH)2 of 12has a strategy that clearedBest: Ichimoku Cloud, Sharpe 1.28 on 32 trades
- Fartcoin (FARTCOIN)1 of 12has a strategy that clearedBest: Mean Reversion, Sharpe 1.16 on 89 trades
- Bonk (kBONK)1 of 12has a strategy that clearedBest: Breakout, Sharpe 1.12 on 79 trades
- Bitcoin (BTC)0 of 12close, nothing clearedClosest: Stochastic, Sharpe 1.49 on 5 trades
- Sui (SUI)0 of 12close, nothing clearedClosest: Supertrend Bollinger, Sharpe 0.94 on 33 trades
- Avalanche (AVAX)0 of 12close, nothing clearedClosest: Supertrend, Sharpe 0.91 on 15 trades
- Pepe (kPEPE)0 of 12close, nothing clearedClosest: Mean Reversion, Sharpe 0.90 on 63 trades
- Solana (SOL)0 of 12close, nothing clearedClosest: Supertrend, Sharpe 0.88 on 25 trades
- Aave (AAVE)0 of 12close, nothing clearedClosest: RSI, Sharpe 0.82 on 3 trades
- Popcat (POPCAT)0 of 12nothing workedClosest: Supertrend, Sharpe 0.76 on 41 trades
- Chainlink (LINK)0 of 12nothing workedClosest: Confluence, Sharpe 0.75 on 83 trades
- BNB0 of 12nothing workedClosest: MA Crossover, Sharpe 0.63 on 5 trades
- dogwifhat (WIF)0 of 12nothing workedClosest: Supertrend, Sharpe 0.56 on 25 trades
- Litecoin (LTC)0 of 12nothing workedClosest: MA Crossover, Sharpe 0.30 on 6 trades
Reading the ranking
How to read a strategy ranking
Six things decide whether a good-looking result means anything.
The best of many results is partly luck
This page holds 240 backtests. Run that many and a few will look great by chance, even if the rules have no real edge. That is why the top row is a place to start, not an answer. A strategy that clears the bar on several coins is harder to explain away than one that shines on a single coin.
Count the trades before the Sharpe
The highest Sharpe here, 2.23 for Stochastic on HYPE, came from 10 trades. Stochastic on BTC scored 1.49 on just 5, so it does not count at all. A handful of good trades can come from one lucky month. The confidence column turns the trade count into plain words.
Big returns come with big drops
The largest return here is Ichimoku Cloud on ENA, +580.4%. On the way it fell 73.5% from its peak. Most traders would have switched it off long before the end. Sort by smallest drawdown to see the other side.
Sharpe compares strategies of different sizes
Some strategies hold a full position, others only a small slice of the coin, so their returns are not on the same scale. Sharpe divides return by the swings it took to get there, and leverage doesn't change it. That is why the table ranks by Sharpe by default.
Costs are already in
Every result pays trading fees and slippage on each trade and pays or earns funding on every open position. Costs: 4.5bp fee + 4.5bp slippage per trade (9bp round-trip); funding included. A strategy that trades often pays more of them, so a busy strategy has to earn more to end up ahead.
One stretch of the past
All results cover 2024-08-15 to 2026-09-29 on Hyperliquid. That is one market, with its own rallies and slumps. A strategy that did well here can fail in the next stretch, which is why paper trading on live prices is a good next step before real money.
Your own test
Test it on your own coin or settings
Every result above used one coin and the strategy as published. In Keel you can open any of these strategies, point it at a different coin, change its settings and run the backtest again with the same fees, slippage and funding. Or describe your own idea in plain words and have the AI build it from blocks you can read.
When a version holds up, paper trade it on live prices before any money is involved.
FAQ
Common questions about the best strategies
What is the most profitable trading strategy in crypto?
There isn't one that wins on every coin. In our backtests of 12 library strategies on 20 Hyperliquid coins, MACD Crossover came closest, clearing our bar on 7 of 20 coins. The biggest single return was Ichimoku Cloud on ENA, +580.4%, but it fell 73.5% from its peak on the way, which most traders could not sit through.
Which crypto trading strategy has the highest Sharpe ratio?
Stochastic on HYPE, with a Sharpe of 2.23 over 10 trades. That is a small sample. Read it as a lead to test, not a result to bet on. Stochastic on BTC scored 1.49 on only 5 trades, too few to count at all.
Why rank strategies by Sharpe and not by total return?
Each strategy sizes its own positions. Some hold a full position, others only a small slice of the coin, so their returns are not on the same scale. The Sharpe ratio measures return per unit of risk, and leverage doesn't change it, so it compares them fairly. Total return is still in the table, next to the worst drawdown that came with it.
Which coin is easiest to trade with a strategy?
In these backtests, ENA: 6 of the 12 strategies cleared our bar there. On 11 of the 20 coins, none did. Each coin page shows its full results.
How were these strategies backtested?
Each library strategy ran on one coin at a time, from 2024-08-15 to 2026-09-29, on Hyperliquid data and the same engine Keel uses to run strategies live. Every trade pays fees and slippage and every open position pays or earns funding. How Keel works explains how the backtest and the live run share one compiled strategy.
Will a strategy that worked in a backtest keep working?
Not necessarily. A backtest shows how the rules behaved over one stretch of the past. Markets change, and the best result in a large table is partly luck. A strategy that cleared the bar on several coins, over many trades, is a better bet than one great row. Paper trading on live prices is a good next check before real money.
Can I test a strategy on a coin or settings that aren't shown here?
Yes. Open any library strategy in Keel, change the coin or the settings, and backtest it with the same costs used here. You can also describe your own idea and have the AI build it. Starting is free, and the free plan includes 50 backtests a week.
Run your own backtest
Starting is free. Pick a strategy from this page or describe your own, and see the backtest before anything trades.