mean-reversionlow risk
RSI Oversold-Recovery Strategy (Crypto)
Does an RSI oversold strategy work on crypto? Backtested on real Hyperliquid perps from 2024-08-15 to 2026-07-05, the default settings earned a Sharpe of 1.05 — +29.4% total return with a 9.6% worst drawdown across 107 trades, net of fees, slippage, and funding.
By Keel Research · Data as of 2026-07-05 · how this backtest was produced
Sharpe
1.05
default settings
Total return
+29.4%
Worst drawdown
−9.6%
Trades
107
2024-08-15 → 2026-07-05 · net of fees, slippage, and funding · price-only Sharpe 1.05 · these are the default settings, not a hand-picked best case.
At $1,000, this strategy’s worst historical dip was about $96. Free account, your own Hyperliquid keys — Keel only trades.
How it works
How it works
Across the top-15 Hyperliquid perps, daily. Buy a coin when its 7-period RSI has dropped into oversold territory — at or below 30 — and is recovering, while price still holds above its 200-day trend line. Exit once RSI climbs back through 50. The RSI reading times a short-term washout, and the 200-day trend gate is what separates this from a naive "buy every RSI dip": entries only trigger on coins that are still in an uptrend, not ones in free fall. Positions are equal-weight and exposure stays light, since the setup only fires on genuine oversold recoveries.
When it works best
Uptrending majors that pause and shake out weak hands before continuing. Each oversold dip inside a healthy trend becomes a repeatable re-entry, and the trend filter cuts losers quickly when a dip keeps going.
When it struggles
Bear markets and choppy, trendless stretches: the 200-day gate keeps it mostly in cash during downtrends, so it sidesteps the worst damage but also sits out long periods with no trades. Widening the setup — trading intraday, adding more coins, or loosening the exit — consistently weakened it in testing, so the edge is narrow by design. With 107 trades over the window, the sample is modest; treat the headline as indicative rather than a promise.
How it’s built
The exact strategy behind this backtest — no black box. Switch to code to see or copy the full definition.
Configuration
Globalsconfig
target_timeframe1dbar_offset12h
UniverseassetsTop by Volume · HL Perps · 15 assets
Executiontrading
rebalanceEvery Bar
Factories
trend_vs_200factory
Pipeline5 steps
PriceDataLoaderData Loader
timeframe15min
TargetTimeframeResamplerData Transform
Parallel2 branches
entry_setup
Parallel2 branches
oversold
RSIIndicator
period7
BelowThresholdFilterSignal Transform
threshold30inclusivetrue
uptrend
trend_vs_200call
AboveThresholdFilterSignal Transform
threshold0
MaskAndSignal Composer
rsi_entrystore
exit_setup
RSIIndicator
period7
AboveThresholdFilterSignal Transform
threshold50
rsi_exitstore
PositionStateMachinePosition Manager
entry_slotrsi_entryexit_slotrsi_exit
EqualWeightSizerPosition Sizer
target_leverage1max_weight0.2
Globals(target_timeframe="1d", bar_offset="12h")Universe(mode="top_volume", top_n=15, market="perp", resolved=[], resolved_at="")Execution(rebalance="every_bar")trend_vs_200 = Pipeline([ { "px": [EWMA(window=2)], "trend": [EWMA(window=200)], }, Crossover(fast_key="px", slow_key="trend"),], name="trend_vs_200")Pipeline([ PriceDataLoader(timeframe="15min"), TargetTimeframeResampler(), { "entry_setup": [ Pipeline([ { "oversold": [RSI(period=7), BelowThresholdFilter(threshold=30.0, inclusive=True)], "uptrend": [trend_vs_200, AboveThresholdFilter(threshold=0.0)], }, MaskAnd(), Store("rsi_entry"), ], name="entry_setup"), ], "exit_setup": [RSI(period=7), AboveThresholdFilter(threshold=50.0), Store("rsi_exit")], }, PositionStateMachine(entry_slot="rsi_entry", exit_slot="rsi_exit"), EqualWeightSizer(target_leverage=1.0, max_weight=0.2),], name="rsi_crypto")Explore the settings
precomputed · updates instantlyAdjust a setting to see the exact backtested result — including the ones that lost money.
exit at
RSI lookback (bars)
Universe size (top by volume)
Sharpe
1.05
Return
29.4%
Worst DD
−9.6%
Trades
107
At $1,000, these settings' worst historical dip was about $96. You land in the editor with this exact setup. Free account, your own keys.
Compare all 6 settings
| Settings | Sharpe | Return | Worst DD | Trades |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| exit 55 · RSI 7 · Universe 15 | 0.89 | 28.9% | −12.9% | 160 |
| exit 55 · RSI 14 · Universe 15 | — | 0.0% | −0.0% | 0 |
| exit 50 · RSI 7 · Universe 15default | 1.05 | 29.4% | −9.6% | 107 |
| exit 65 · RSI 7 · Universe 15 | 0.17 | 2.5% | −26.1% | 265 |
| exit 55 · RSI 7 · Universe 25 | 0.46 | 15.9% | −19.8% | 294 |
| exit 45 · RSI 7 · Universe 15 | 1.15 | 25.0% | −7.3% | 80 |
The data
Monthly returns
| Month | Return |
|---|---|
| 2024-08 | 0.0% |
| 2024-09 | 0.0% |
| 2024-10 | 0.0% |
| 2024-11 | 0.0% |
| 2024-12 | 0.0% |
| 2025-01 | 0.0% |
| 2025-02 | 0.0% |
| 2025-03 | +0.0% |
| 2025-04 | +0.5% |
| 2025-05 | -0.7% |
| 2025-06 | +3.0% |
| 2025-07 | +0.6% |
| 2025-08 | +2.4% |
| 2025-09 | -0.9% |
| 2025-10 | +7.6% |
| 2025-11 | +1.5% |
| 2025-12 | 0.0% |
| 2026-01 | 0.0% |
| 2026-02 | 0.0% |
| 2026-03 | 0.0% |
| 2026-04 | 0.0% |
| 2026-05 | 0.0% |
| 2026-06 | +12.8% |
| 2026-07 | 0.0% |
Which assets it traded
| Avg allocation | Days held | % of time held | Asset |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.1937 | 36 | 5.22 | BTC |
| 0.1918 | 32 | 4.64 | HYPE |
| 0.1916 | 31 | 4.5 | ETH |
| 0.1895 | 25 | 3.63 | XRP |
| 0.1881 | 22 | 3.19 | SOL |
| 0.1854 | 18 | 2.61 | LINK |
| 0.2 | 10 | 1.45 | ZEC |
| 0.2 | 9 | 1.31 | SUI |
| 0.2 | 9 | 1.31 | kPEPE |
| 0.1476 | 5 | 0.73 | DOGE |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | GRAM |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | LIT |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | PUMP |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | VVV |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | XPL |
What this is: a historical backtest on real Hyperliquid market data, net of fees, slippage, and funding. Its worst historical drawdown was 9.6% — expect drawdowns of that order or worse. Past performance does not predict future results, and this is not investment advice. Size your account so a full drawdown is survivable.