Marginal: close, but below the bar12 strategies tested
The best Bitcoin (BTC) trading strategy, backtested
No Bitcoin (BTC) trading strategy clearly worked in our backtests. Stochastic scored best, a Sharpe of 1.49 on BTC alone, but on only 5 trades, too few to trust. We ran 12 strategies from 2024-08-15 to 2026-09-29, net of fees, slippage and funding, and every result is below.
By Keel Research Team · Data as of 2026-09-29 · how these backtests were produced
Best Sharpe
1.49
Stochastic
Cleared the bar
0 / 12
Data from
2024-08-15
first bar in the test
Tested through
2026-09-29
end of the test
The BTC strategy leaderboard
Every strategy ranked by net Sharpe. Rows that clear the Sharpe 1.0 bar are highlighted; failed and wiped-out runs stay visible. Click any strategy for its full multi-asset backtest.
| Strategy | Net Sharpe | Return | Max DD | Trades | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stochastic | 1.49 | +5.2% | −1.3% | 5 | very low |
| Ichimoku Cloud | 0.90 | +69.3% | −25.9% | 33 | moderate |
| Supertrend | 0.79 | +9.7% | −7.5% | 24 | low |
| AI Trading Bot | 0.61 | +7.9% | −8.3% | 15 | low |
| MACD Crossover | 0.59 | +5.2% | −7.5% | 104 | ok |
| MA Crossover | 0.56 | +5.2% | −5.3% | 7 | very low |
| Breakout | 0.34 | +12.9% | −38.2% | 90 | moderate |
| Supertrend Bollinger | 0.34 | +2.8% | −8.3% | 34 | moderate |
| Confluence | 0.28 | +1.8% | −5.5% | 82 | moderate |
| RSI | 0.27 | +0.8% | −1.7% | 5 | very low |
| ADX Trend | -0.10 | -0.8% | −5.6% | 53 | moderate |
| Mean Reversion | -0.46 | -2.6% | −4.3% | 153 | ok |
2024-08-15 → 2026-09-29 · net of fees, slippage, and funding · one engine, one window, one cost model for every strategy, with no cherry-picking.
The return column reflects each strategy’s own position sizing (some hold only a small slice of one coin), so Sharpe, which isn’t affected by leverage, is the fair way to rank them. 3 strategies that rank coins against each other (like funding carry and momentum ranking) can't run on a single asset, so they're left out.
Start from the closest: Stochastic
Nothing cleared our bar on BTC, but Stochastic came closest (Sharpe 1.49). The library version trades a basket of coins. To run it on BTC alone, fork it and pick BTC as its only coin. Then see if you can push it further.
At $1,000, Stochastic's worst historical dip on BTC alone was about $13. Free account, your own keys. Keel only places the trades.
Bitcoin trading bot on Hyperliquid
Any strategy on this page can be your Bitcoin trading bot, running on your own Hyperliquid account, but none clearly worked on BTC in our tests. Stochastic scored best, but on too few trades to trust. If you still want to run a Bitcoin bot, fork it, pick BTC as its only coin, change the rules and backtest it until the result holds up.
Paper trade it first on live prices, which needs no wallet. When you go live, Keel trades from your own Hyperliquid account through an agent wallet that can place trades but can never withdraw, so your money stays in your account, and you can pause the bot or revoke its access at any time.
Bitcoin indicators today
The Bitcoin indicator dashboard shows today's daily RSI, MACD, moving averages, volatility and Hyperliquid funding for BTC, updated once a day. Check where BTC stands now, then test a rule on it with the strategies above.
Bitcoin strategy optimizer
Want to find the best settings for a Bitcoin strategy? The strategy optimizer page explains what an optimizer does, why testing many settings can fool you on short crypto history, and how to compare BTC settings in Keel today.
What this is: a single-asset backtest of 12 systematic strategies on BTC, on real Hyperliquid data, net of fees, slippage and funding. A high Sharpe on a low trade count is a small sample, not a promise. Where nothing clears the bar, we say so. Past performance does not predict future results, and this is not investment advice.
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Strategies on other assets
See the full strategy library or the per-asset index.