trend-followinghigh risk
MA Crossover (Golden Cross) Strategy
Does the golden cross work on crypto? Backtested on real Hyperliquid perps from 2024-08-15 to 2026-09-29, the default settings earned a Sharpe of 1.05 — +130.9% total return with a 30.4% worst drawdown across 54 trades in 54 positions, net of fees, slippage, and funding.
By Keel Research · Data as of 2026-09-29 · how this backtest was produced
Sharpe
1.05
default settings
Total return
+130.9%
Worst drawdown
−30.4%
Trades
54
2024-08-15 → 2026-09-29 · net of fees, slippage, and funding · price-only Sharpe 1.24 · only 54 positions, so treat the ratio as a small-sample estimate.
At $1,000, this strategy’s worst historical dip was about $304. Free account, your own Hyperliquid keys — Keel only trades.
How it works
How it works
For each of eight major Hyperliquid perps — BTC, ETH, SOL, BNB, XRP, DOGE, HYPE, SUI — daily: hold the coin long while its 20-day moving average sits above its 50-day average, and step aside to cash when it drops below. Run one coin at a time and this is the familiar golden cross; run it across eight majors at once and the individual crosses stagger, turning the book into a diversified trend allocator rather than a single all-or-nothing bet on one chart. Each coin in the book holds a fixed 12.5% of equity, set when it enters and left alone until it exits, so all eight at once is fully invested and never more.
When it works best
Broad, sustained bull trends where several majors run together. Diversifying the crossover across a basket is what lifts it well above the single-chart version: the much-cited BTC 50/200 golden cross scores only 0.09 over the same window, while the eight-major 20/50 book reaches a Sharpe of 1.05. A faster average pair and a curated basket of liquid majors are where the improvement comes from.
When it struggles
Choppy, directionless markets whipsaw every crossover — the averages cross back and forth, and each false signal is a small loss. Because the strategy carries no volatility management, it also takes the full brunt of crypto sell-offs: the maximum drawdown over the window was −30.4%. This is a high-risk, trend-or-nothing book by design, and it will give back a large share of gains at every major turn.
How it’s built
The exact strategy behind this backtest — no black box. Switch to code to see or copy the full definition.
Configuration
Globalsconfig
target_timeframe1dbar_offset12h
UniverseassetsManual · HL Perps · 8 symbols8 resolved
Executiontrading
rebalanceOn Change
Pipeline6 steps
PriceDataLoaderData Loader
Parallel2 branches
fast
EWMAIndicator
window20
slow
EWMAIndicator
window50
CrossoverSignal Composer
fast_keyfastslow_keyslow
AboveThresholdFilterSignal Transform
threshold0
FixedWeightSizerPosition Sizer
weight_per_position0.125
LeverageCapRisk Manager
max_leverage1
Globals(target_timeframe="1d", bar_offset="12h")Universe(mode="manual", symbols=["BTC", "ETH", "SOL", "BNB", "XRP", "DOGE", "HYPE", "SUI"], market="perp", resolved=["BTC", "ETH", "SOL", "BNB", "XRP", "DOGE", "HYPE", "SUI"], resolved_at="2026-07-06T00:00:00Z")Execution(rebalance="on_change")Pipeline([ PriceDataLoader(), { "fast": [EWMA(window=20)], "slow": [EWMA(window=50)], }, Crossover(fast_key="fast", slow_key="slow"), AboveThresholdFilter(threshold=0.0), FixedWeightSizer(weight_per_position=0.125), LeverageCap(max_leverage=1.0),], name="ma_crossover_crypto")Explore the settings
precomputed · updates instantlyAdjust a setting to see the exact backtested result — including the ones that lost money.
Complete 8-cell public cross-product on explicit resolved universes.
Fast / slow EMA
Pinned basket
Sharpe
1.05
Return
130.9%
Worst DD
−30.4%
Trades
54
Heads up: low_sample.
At $1,000, these settings' worst historical dip was about $304. You land in the editor with this exact setup. Free account, your own keys.
Compare all 8 settings
| Settings | Sharpe | Return | Worst DD | Trades |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fast 10/30 · Pinned btc | 0.63 | 5.5% | −4.8% | 14 |
| Fast 10/30 · Pinned majors3 | 0.61 | 18.4% | −19.7% | 39 |
| Fast 10/30 · Pinned majors8 | 1.02 | 121.1% | −40.9% | 99 |
| Fast 10/30 · Pinned top15_launch | 1.39 | 301.1% | −40.4% | 394 |
| Fast 20/50 · Pinned btc | 0.56 | 5.2% | −5.3% | 7 |
| Fast 20/50 · Pinned majors3 | 0.60 | 18.3% | −15.3% | 23 |
| Fast 20/50 · Pinned majors8default | 1.05 | 130.9% | −30.4% | 54 |
| Fast 20/50 · Pinned top15_launch | 1.44 | 337.1% | −42.4% | 260 |
The data
Monthly returns
| Month | Return |
|---|---|
| 2024-08 | 0.0% |
| 2024-09 | 0.0% |
| 2024-10 | +15.9% |
| 2024-11 | +77.3% |
| 2024-12 | -6.0% |
| 2025-01 | +15.1% |
| 2025-02 | -19.8% |
| 2025-03 | 0.0% |
| 2025-04 | +0.9% |
| 2025-05 | +4.2% |
| 2025-06 | +4.1% |
| 2025-07 | +18.1% |
| 2025-08 | +0.5% |
| 2025-09 | -2.5% |
| 2025-10 | -5.2% |
| 2025-11 | -2.6% |
| 2025-12 | 0.0% |
| 2026-01 | -5.3% |
| 2026-02 | -3.1% |
| 2026-03 | +1.8% |
| 2026-04 | +0.4% |
| 2026-05 | +6.4% |
| 2026-06 | -4.4% |
| 2026-07 | -4.3% |
| 2026-08 | +5.4% |
| 2026-09 | +15.1% |
Which assets it traded
| Avg allocation | Days held | % of time held | Asset |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.125 | 415 | 53.55 | HYPE |
| 0.125 | 391 | 50.45 | BNB |
| 0.125 | 376 | 48.52 | BTC |
| 0.125 | 351 | 45.29 | ETH |
| 0.125 | 308 | 39.74 | DOGE |
| 0.125 | 304 | 39.23 | SOL |
| 0.125 | 290 | 37.42 | SUI |
| 0.125 | 254 | 32.77 | XRP |
What this is: a historical backtest on real Hyperliquid market data, net of fees, slippage, and funding. Its worst historical drawdown was 30.4% — expect drawdowns of that order or worse. Past performance does not predict future results, and this is not investment advice. Size your account so a full drawdown is survivable.