trend-followinghigh risk⚠ Data as of 2026-07-05 — refresh pending
MA Crossover (Golden Cross) Strategy
Does the golden cross work on crypto? Backtested on real Hyperliquid perps from 2024-08-15 to 2026-07-05, the default settings earned a Sharpe of 1.15 — +125.4% total return with a 30.3% worst drawdown across 1,096 trades, net of fees, slippage, and funding.
By Keel Research · Data as of 2026-07-05 · how this backtest was produced
Sharpe
1.15
default settings
Total return
+125.4%
Worst drawdown
−30.3%
Trades
1,096
2024-08-15 → 2026-07-05 · net of fees, slippage, and funding · price-only Sharpe 1.31 · these are the default settings, not a hand-picked best case.
At $1,000, this strategy’s worst historical dip was about $303. Free account, your own Hyperliquid keys — Keel only trades.
How it works
How it works
For each of eight major Hyperliquid perps — BTC, ETH, SOL, BNB, XRP, DOGE, HYPE, SUI — daily: hold the coin long while its 20-day moving average sits above its 50-day average, and step aside to cash when it drops below. Run one coin at a time and this is the familiar golden cross; run it across eight majors at once and the individual crosses stagger, turning the book into a diversified trend allocator rather than a single all-or-nothing bet on one chart. Positions are equal-weight.
When it works best
Broad, sustained bull trends where several majors run together. Diversifying the crossover across a basket is what lifts it well above the single-chart version: the much-cited BTC 50/200 golden cross scores only 0.09 over the same window, while the eight-major 20/50 book reaches a Sharpe of 1.15. A faster average pair and a curated basket of liquid majors are where the improvement comes from.
When it struggles
Choppy, directionless markets whipsaw every crossover — the averages cross back and forth, and each false signal is a small loss. Because the strategy carries no volatility management, it also takes the full brunt of crypto sell-offs: the maximum drawdown over the window was −30.3%. This is a high-risk, trend-or-nothing book by design, and it will give back a large share of gains at every major turn.
How it’s built
The exact strategy behind this backtest — no black box. Switch to code to see or copy the full definition.
Configuration
Globalsconfig
target_timeframe1dbar_offset12h
UniverseassetsManual · HL Perps · 8 symbols8 resolved
Executiontrading
rebalanceEvery Bar
Pipeline6 steps
PriceDataLoaderData Loader
timeframe15min
TargetTimeframeResamplerData Transform
Parallel2 branches
fast
EWMAIndicator
window20
slow
EWMAIndicator
window50
CrossoverSignal Composer
fast_keyfastslow_keyslow
AboveThresholdFilterSignal Transform
threshold0
EqualWeightSizerPosition Sizer
target_leverage1max_weight0.2
Globals(target_timeframe="1d", bar_offset="12h")Universe(mode="manual", symbols=["BTC", "ETH", "SOL", "BNB", "XRP", "DOGE", "HYPE", "SUI"], market="perp", resolved=["BTC", "ETH", "SOL", "BNB", "XRP", "DOGE", "HYPE", "SUI"], resolved_at="2026-07-06T00:00:00Z")Execution(rebalance="every_bar")Pipeline([ PriceDataLoader(timeframe="15min"), TargetTimeframeResampler(), { "fast": [EWMA(window=20)], "slow": [EWMA(window=50)], }, Crossover(fast_key="fast", slow_key="slow"), AboveThresholdFilter(threshold=0.0), EqualWeightSizer(target_leverage=1.0, max_weight=0.2),], name="ma_crossover_crypto")Explore the settings
precomputed · updates instantlyAdjust a setting to see the exact backtested result — including the ones that lost money.
Complete 8-cell public cross-product on explicit resolved universes.
Fast / slow EMA
Pinned basket
Sharpe
1.15
Return
125.4%
Worst DD
−30.3%
Trades
1,096
At $1,000, these settings' worst historical dip was about $303. You land in the editor with this exact setup. Free account, your own keys.
Compare all 8 settings
| Settings | Sharpe | Return | Worst DD | Trades |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fast 10/30 · Pinned btc | 0.64 | 6.6% | −7.0% | 190 |
| Fast 10/30 · Pinned majors3 | 0.32 | 8.8% | −25.6% | 476 |
| Fast 10/30 · Pinned majors8 | 1.02 | 102.5% | −44.1% | 1,184 |
| Fast 10/30 · Pinned top15_launch | 1.27 | 211.3% | −36.2% | 1,513 |
| Fast 20/50 · Pinned btc | 0.48 | 4.9% | −7.8% | 182 |
| Fast 20/50 · Pinned majors3 | 0.42 | 12.9% | −18.0% | 447 |
| Fast 20/50 · Pinned majors8default | 1.15 | 125.4% | −30.3% | 1,096 |
| Fast 20/50 · Pinned top15_launch | 1.12 | 159.0% | −45.7% | 1,414 |
The data
Monthly returns
| Month | Return |
|---|---|
| 2024-08 | 0.0% |
| 2024-09 | 0.0% |
| 2024-10 | +22.7% |
| 2024-11 | +75.5% |
| 2024-12 | -3.6% |
| 2025-01 | +8.7% |
| 2025-02 | -17.4% |
| 2025-03 | 0.0% |
| 2025-04 | +1.6% |
| 2025-05 | +8.1% |
| 2025-06 | +2.0% |
| 2025-07 | +22.9% |
| 2025-08 | -0.3% |
| 2025-09 | +4.5% |
| 2025-10 | -5.9% |
| 2025-11 | -2.8% |
| 2025-12 | 0.0% |
| 2026-01 | -8.6% |
| 2026-02 | -5.3% |
| 2026-03 | +3.1% |
| 2026-04 | +0.5% |
| 2026-05 | +6.7% |
| 2026-06 | -5.3% |
| 2026-07 | +1.4% |
Which assets it traded
| Avg allocation | Days held | % of time held | Asset |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.176 | 355 | 51.52 | HYPE |
| 0.1628 | 340 | 49.35 | BNB |
| 0.1636 | 336 | 48.77 | BTC |
| 0.1581 | 282 | 40.93 | ETH |
| 0.1551 | 271 | 39.33 | DOGE |
| 0.1536 | 258 | 37.45 | SOL |
| 0.1535 | 255 | 37.01 | SUI |
| 0.1493 | 216 | 31.35 | XRP |
What this is: a historical backtest on real Hyperliquid market data, net of fees, slippage, and funding. Its worst historical drawdown was 30.3% — expect drawdowns of that order or worse. Past performance does not predict future results, and this is not investment advice. Size your account so a full drawdown is survivable.