trend-followinghigh risk
MA Crossover (Golden Cross) Strategy
Does the golden cross work on crypto? Backtested on real Hyperliquid perps from 2024-08-15 to 2026-07-05, the default settings earned a Sharpe of 1.12 — +158.7% total return with a 45.7% worst drawdown across 1,414 trades, net of fees, slippage, and funding.
By Keel Research · Data as of 2026-07-05 · how this backtest was produced
Sharpe
1.12
default settings
Total return
+158.7%
Worst drawdown
−45.7%
Trades
1,414
2024-08-15 → 2026-07-05 · net of fees, slippage, and funding · price-only Sharpe 1.23 · these are the default settings, not a hand-picked best case.
At $1,000, this strategy’s worst historical dip was about $457. Free account, your own Hyperliquid keys — Keel only trades.
How it works
How it works
For each of the top-15 Hyperliquid perps, daily: hold the coin long while its 20-day moving average sits above its 50-day average, and step aside to cash when it drops below. Run one coin at a time and this is the familiar golden cross; run it across fifteen majors at once and the individual crosses stagger, turning the book into a diversified trend allocator rather than a single all-or-nothing bet on one chart. Positions are equal-weight.
When it works best
Broad, sustained bull trends where several majors run together. Diversifying the crossover across a basket is what lifts it well above the single-chart version: the much-cited BTC 50/200 golden cross scores only 0.09 over the same window, while the 15-coin 20/50 book reaches a Sharpe of 1.12. A faster average pair and wider breadth are where the improvement comes from.
When it struggles
Choppy, directionless markets whipsaw every crossover — the averages cross back and forth, and each false signal is a small loss. Because the strategy carries no volatility management, it also takes the full brunt of crypto sell-offs: the maximum drawdown over the window was −45.7%. This is a high-risk, trend-or-nothing book by design, and it will give back a large share of gains at every major turn.
How it’s built
The exact strategy behind this backtest — no black box. Switch to code to see or copy the full definition.
Configuration
Globalsconfig
target_timeframe1dbar_offset12h
UniverseassetsTop by Volume · HL Perps · 15 assets
Executiontrading
rebalanceEvery Bar
Pipeline6 steps
PriceDataLoaderData Loader
timeframe15min
TargetTimeframeResamplerData Transform
Parallel2 branches
fast
EWMAIndicator
window20
slow
EWMAIndicator
window50
CrossoverSignal Composer
fast_keyfastslow_keyslow
AboveThresholdFilterSignal Transform
threshold0
EqualWeightSizerPosition Sizer
target_leverage1max_weight0.2
Globals(target_timeframe="1d", bar_offset="12h")Universe(mode="top_volume", top_n=15, market="perp", resolved=[], resolved_at="")Execution(rebalance="every_bar")Pipeline([ PriceDataLoader(timeframe="15min"), TargetTimeframeResampler(), { "fast": [EWMA(window=20)], "slow": [EWMA(window=50)], }, Crossover(fast_key="fast", slow_key="slow"), AboveThresholdFilter(threshold=0.0), EqualWeightSizer(target_leverage=1.0, max_weight=0.2),], name="ma_crossover_crypto")Explore the settings
precomputed · updates instantlyAdjust a setting to see the exact backtested result — including the ones that lost money.
Fast / slow MA (days)
Universe breadth
Sharpe
1.12
Return
158.7%
Worst DD
−45.7%
Trades
1,414
At $1,000, these settings' worst historical dip was about $457. You land in the editor with this exact setup. Free account, your own keys.
Compare all 6 settings
| Settings | Sharpe | Return | Worst DD | Trades |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fast 50/200 · Universe BTC | 0.09 | -1.6% | −28.0% | 247 |
| Fast 20/50 · Universe BTC | 0.49 | 20.1% | −34.2% | 315 |
| Fast 20/50 · Universe BTC/ETH/SOL | 0.40 | 15.6% | −29.6% | 463 |
| Fast 20/50 · Universe top15default | 1.12 | 158.7% | −45.7% | 1,414 |
| Fast 50/200 · Universe top15 | 0.48 | 23.6% | −41.3% | 810 |
| Fast 20/50 · Universe top25 | 0.74 | 67.3% | −51.3% | 2,562 |
The data
Monthly returns
| Month | Return |
|---|---|
| 2024-08 | 0.0% |
| 2024-09 | 0.0% |
| 2024-10 | +20.7% |
| 2024-11 | +88.0% |
| 2024-12 | -3.4% |
| 2025-01 | +10.8% |
| 2025-02 | -20.2% |
| 2025-03 | 0.0% |
| 2025-04 | +0.7% |
| 2025-05 | +6.8% |
| 2025-06 | -0.9% |
| 2025-07 | +18.5% |
| 2025-08 | -1.3% |
| 2025-09 | +4.1% |
| 2025-10 | -16.5% |
| 2025-11 | -5.0% |
| 2025-12 | +4.2% |
| 2026-01 | -13.2% |
| 2026-02 | +1.5% |
| 2026-03 | +11.9% |
| 2026-04 | +1.0% |
| 2026-05 | +20.3% |
| 2026-06 | -3.3% |
| 2026-07 | +7.3% |
Which assets it traded
| Share of return | Avg allocation | Days held | % of time held | Asset |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28.26 | 0.1625 | 354 | 51.38 | HYPE |
| 21.47 | 0.1343 | 216 | 31.35 | XRP |
| 19.5 | 0.1672 | 223 | 32.37 | VVV |
| 19.02 | 0.1313 | 271 | 39.33 | DOGE |
| 12.55 | 0.1854 | 43 | 6.24 | LIT |
| 11.45 | 0.132 | 275 | 39.91 | LINK |
| 9.07 | 0.1378 | 281 | 40.78 | ETH |
| 7.47 | 0.1394 | 239 | 34.69 | kPEPE |
| 7.13 | 0.1438 | 336 | 48.77 | BTC |
| 6.67 | 0.1355 | 257 | 37.3 | SOL |
| 3.9 | 0.1756 | 141 | 20.46 | ZEC |
| 2.31 | 0.1337 | 255 | 37.01 | SUI |
| 0.57 | 0.1827 | 30 | 4.35 | XPL |
| 0 | null | 0 | 0 | GRAM |
| -5.6 | 0.1407 | 54 | 7.84 | PUMP |
How it did in rising vs falling markets
| Market | Days | Return | Sharpe |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rising markets | 275 | +221.6% | 2.91 |
| Falling markets | 411 | -19.6% | 0.02 |
What this is: a historical backtest on real Hyperliquid market data, net of fees, slippage, and funding. Its worst historical drawdown was 45.7% — expect drawdowns of that order or worse. Past performance does not predict future results, and this is not investment advice. Size your account so a full drawdown is survivable.