indicator-trendhigh risk
Ichimoku Cloud Strategy (Crypto Perps)
Does the Ichimoku cloud work on crypto perps? Backtested on real Hyperliquid perps from 2024-08-15 to 2026-09-29, the default settings earned a Sharpe of 0.93 — +115.4% total return with a 45.5% worst drawdown across 825 trades in 407 positions, net of fees, slippage, and funding.
By Keel Research · Data as of 2026-09-29 · how this backtest was produced
Sharpe
0.93
default settings
Total return
+115.4%
Worst drawdown
−45.5%
Trades
825
2024-08-15 → 2026-09-29 · net of fees, slippage, and funding · price-only Sharpe 1.02 · these are the default settings, not a hand-picked best case.
At $1,000, this strategy’s worst historical dip was about $455. Free account, your own Hyperliquid keys — Keel only trades.
How it works
How it works
The Ichimoku cloud is a slow, price-only trend filter. When a coin's price closes above the cloud it is in an uptrend; below the cloud, a downtrend; inside the cloud, the trend is ambiguous and the position sits flat. The strategy trades that single read long and short across the 15 most liquid Hyperliquid perpetuals, checked daily, using the canonical 9/26/52 periods. Positions are equal-sized at 1x gross and rebalance only when a holding drifts 20% off target, which keeps turnover in check. The cloud carries the whole edge here — there is no faster trigger layered on top.
When it works best
It profits when the majors and large-cap perps hold sustained directional legs — long trending stretches where price stays cleanly on one side of the cloud. The neutral inside-cloud zone is a feature: it sits out part of the chop that whipsaws faster trend systems. Breadth helps too — a tighter top-8 universe reads even stronger than the default 15.
When it struggles
Because the book is almost always in the market, it takes the full brunt of choppy, sideways regimes and sharp reversals. Over the sampled window it drew down 45.5% at its worst across 825 trades. This is a high-risk, always-on trend follower, not a low-volatility product.
How it’s built
The exact strategy behind this backtest — no black box. Switch to code to see or copy the full definition.
Configuration
Globalsconfig
target_timeframe1dbar_offset12h
UniverseassetsTop by Volume · HL Perps · 15 assets15 resolved
Executiontrading
rebalanceBufferedbuffer_threshold0.2buffer_moderelative+1
Pipeline3 steps
PriceDataLoaderData Loader
IchimokuCloudIndicator
tenkan_period9kijun_period26senkou_b_period52
ForecastWeightNormalizerPosition Sizer
target_leverage1
Globals(target_timeframe="1d", bar_offset="12h")Universe(mode="top_volume", top_n=15, market="perp", resolved=["BTC", "DOGE", "ETH", "GRAM", "HYPE", "LINK", "LIT", "PUMP", "SOL", "SUI", "VVV", "XPL", "XRP", "ZEC", "kPEPE"], resolved_at="2026-07-06T18:59:42.240322+00:00")Execution( rebalance="buffered", buffer_threshold=0.2, buffer_mode="relative", rebalance_method="to_edge",)Pipeline([ PriceDataLoader(), IchimokuCloud(tenkan_period=9, kijun_period=26, senkou_b_period=52), ForecastWeightNormalizer(target_leverage=1.0),], name="ichimoku_cloud_crypto")Explore the settings
precomputed · updates instantlyAdjust a setting to see the exact backtested result — including the ones that lost money.
Complete 18-cell public cross-product on explicit resolved universes.
Ichimoku periods
Pinned universe
Rebalance buffer
Sharpe
0.93
Return
115.4%
Worst DD
−45.5%
Trades
825
At $1,000, these settings' worst historical dip was about $455. You land in the editor with this exact setup. Free account, your own keys.
Compare all 18 settings
| Settings | Sharpe | Return | Worst DD | Trades |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ichimoku 5/13/26 · Pinned top8_launch · Rebalance 0.1 | 0.41 | 16.5% | −46.5% | 1,100 |
| Ichimoku 5/13/26 · Pinned top8_launch · Rebalance 0.2 | 0.49 | 29.4% | −45.0% | 683 |
| Ichimoku 5/13/26 · Pinned top15_launch · Rebalance 0.1 | 0.75 | 77.2% | −49.3% | 1,812 |
| Ichimoku 5/13/26 · Pinned top15_launch · Rebalance 0.2 | 0.81 | 86.9% | −46.7% | 1,092 |
| Ichimoku 5/13/26 · Pinned top25_launch · Rebalance 0.1 | 0.66 | 58.6% | −45.5% | 2,954 |
| Ichimoku 5/13/26 · Pinned top25_launch · Rebalance 0.2 | 0.70 | 64.4% | −42.7% | 1,743 |
| Ichimoku 9/26/52 · Pinned top8_launch · Rebalance 0.1 | 0.85 | 102.4% | −39.9% | 841 |
| Ichimoku 9/26/52 · Pinned top8_launch · Rebalance 0.2 | 0.91 | 113.4% | −35.5% | 508 |
| Ichimoku 9/26/52 · Pinned top15_launch · Rebalance 0.1 | 0.86 | 100.3% | −48.7% | 1,470 |
| Ichimoku 9/26/52 · Pinned top15_launch · Rebalance 0.2default | 0.93 | 115.4% | −45.5% | 825 |
| Ichimoku 9/26/52 · Pinned top25_launch · Rebalance 0.1 | 0.72 | 70.1% | −53.2% | 2,558 |
| Ichimoku 9/26/52 · Pinned top25_launch · Rebalance 0.2 | 0.79 | 82.2% | −49.4% | 1,394 |
| Ichimoku 18/52/104 · Pinned top8_launch · Rebalance 0.1 | 0.38 | 12.0% | −54.1% | 665 |
| Ichimoku 18/52/104 · Pinned top8_launch · Rebalance 0.2 | 0.41 | 15.9% | −54.0% | 342 |
| Ichimoku 18/52/104 · Pinned top15_launch · Rebalance 0.1 | 0.51 | 32.1% | −55.7% | 1,081 |
| Ichimoku 18/52/104 · Pinned top15_launch · Rebalance 0.2 | 0.55 | 37.5% | −54.2% | 539 |
| Ichimoku 18/52/104 · Pinned top25_launch · Rebalance 0.1 | 0.32 | 5.1% | −55.7% | 1,935 |
| Ichimoku 18/52/104 · Pinned top25_launch · Rebalance 0.2 | 0.34 | 9.3% | −54.8% | 958 |
The data
Monthly returns
| Month | Return |
|---|---|
| 2024-08 | 0.0% |
| 2024-09 | 0.0% |
| 2024-10 | +9.3% |
| 2024-11 | +71.4% |
| 2024-12 | -14.2% |
| 2025-01 | -6.0% |
| 2025-02 | +17.3% |
| 2025-03 | +5.7% |
| 2025-04 | -22.7% |
| 2025-05 | +5.4% |
| 2025-06 | -6.9% |
| 2025-07 | -5.5% |
| 2025-08 | -4.1% |
| 2025-09 | -4.1% |
| 2025-10 | +6.4% |
| 2025-11 | +23.4% |
| 2025-12 | +1.9% |
| 2026-01 | -5.3% |
| 2026-02 | +20.9% |
| 2026-03 | -1.4% |
| 2026-04 | -11.4% |
| 2026-05 | +10.1% |
| 2026-06 | +5.5% |
| 2026-07 | -10.4% |
| 2026-08 | +13.8% |
| 2026-09 | +9.7% |
Which assets it traded
| Avg allocation | Days held | % of time held | Asset |
|---|---|---|---|
| -0.0214 | 637 | 82.19 | DOGE |
| -0.011 | 635 | 81.94 | SUI |
| -0.0265 | 625 | 80.65 | kPEPE |
| -0.0056 | 618 | 79.74 | LINK |
| -0.0021 | 607 | 78.32 | SOL |
| 0.0068 | 598 | 77.16 | ETH |
| -0.0182 | 594 | 76.65 | XRP |
| 0.0222 | 590 | 76.13 | BTC |
| 0.0301 | 540 | 69.68 | HYPE |
| -0.0162 | 506 | 65.29 | VVV |
| -0.0346 | 333 | 42.97 | PUMP |
| -0.0629 | 296 | 38.19 | XPL |
| 0.0103 | 280 | 36.13 | ZEC |
| 0.0103 | 219 | 28.26 | LIT |
| -0.0619 | 32 | 4.13 | GRAM |
What this is: a historical backtest on real Hyperliquid market data, net of fees, slippage, and funding. Its worst historical drawdown was 45.5% — expect drawdowns of that order or worse. Past performance does not predict future results, and this is not investment advice. Size your account so a full drawdown is survivable.