trend-breakouthigh risk⚠ Data as of 2026-07-05 — refresh pending
Channel Breakout Strategy on Hyperliquid
Does a channel breakout strategy work on Hyperliquid perps? Backtested on real Hyperliquid perps from 2024-08-15 to 2026-07-05, the default settings earned a Sharpe of 0.86 — +86.2% total return with a 40.4% worst drawdown across 3,426 trades, net of fees, slippage, and funding.
By Keel Research · Data as of 2026-07-05 · how this backtest was produced
Sharpe
0.86
default settings
Total return
+86.2%
Worst drawdown
−40.4%
Trades
3,426
2024-08-15 → 2026-07-05 · net of fees, slippage, and funding · price-only Sharpe 0.94 · these are the default settings, not a hand-picked best case.
At $1,000, this strategy’s worst historical dip was about $404. Free account, your own Hyperliquid keys — Keel only trades.
How it works
How it works
Crypto trends tend to persist: once price pushes beyond its recent volatility range, it more often keeps going than snaps back. The strategy measures each coin's position relative to a 20-day channel built around its average price and volatility, then holds it long or short in proportion to how far — and in which direction — price sits outside that channel. It runs daily across the top-20 Hyperliquid perpetuals, risk-normalized to 1x gross, and rebalances only when a position drifts 20% off target. This is a continuous take on the classic channel breakout: position size scales smoothly with the breakout rather than flipping fully in or out.
When it works best
It profits when strong directional moves extend — coins breaking out and running, in either direction. A 20-day lookback is the sweet spot: it beats both a faster 10-day channel, which reads more false breaks, and a slower 40-day one, which enters late.
When it struggles
Range-bound, mean-reverting markets are the enemy — false breakouts reverse and each one costs. Turnover is high at 3,414 trades over the window, and with no volatility targeting the strategy drew down 40.4% at its worst. It sits firmly in the high-risk band.
How it’s built
The exact strategy behind this backtest — no black box. Switch to code to see or copy the full definition.
Configuration
Globalsconfig
target_timeframe1dbar_offset12h
UniverseassetsTop by Volume · HL Perps · 20 assets20 resolved
Executiontrading
rebalanceBufferedbuffer_threshold0.2buffer_moderelative+1
Pipeline6 steps
PriceDataLoaderData Loader
timeframe15min
TargetTimeframeResamplerData Transform
KeltnerChannelIndicator
period20multiplier2
ForecastScalerForecast Mapper
avg_abs_target10
ForecastCapperForecast Mapper
limit20
ForecastWeightNormalizerPosition Sizer
target_leverage1
Globals(target_timeframe="1d", bar_offset="12h")Universe(mode="top_volume", top_n=20, market="perp", resolved=["BNB", "BTC", "DOGE", "ETH", "FARTCOIN", "GRAM", "HYPE", "LINK", "LIT", "NEAR", "PUMP", "SOL", "SUI", "VVV", "WLD", "XPL", "XRP", "ZEC", "kBONK", "kPEPE"], resolved_at="2026-07-06T19:00:45.642306+00:00")Execution( rebalance="buffered", buffer_threshold=0.2, buffer_mode="relative", rebalance_method="to_edge",)Pipeline([ PriceDataLoader(timeframe="15min"), TargetTimeframeResampler(), KeltnerChannel(period=20, multiplier=2.0), ForecastScaler(avg_abs_target=10.0), ForecastCapper(limit=20.0), ForecastWeightNormalizer(target_leverage=1.0),], name="breakout_donchian_hyperliquid")Explore the settings
precomputed · updates instantlyAdjust a setting to see the exact backtested result — including the ones that lost money.
Complete 18-cell public cross-product on explicit resolved universes.
Channel lookback
Pinned universe
Rebalance buffer
Sharpe
0.86
Return
86.2%
Worst DD
−40.4%
Trades
3,426
At $1,000, these settings' worst historical dip was about $404. You land in the editor with this exact setup. Free account, your own keys.
Compare all 18 settings
| Settings | Sharpe | Return | Worst DD | Trades |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Channel 10 · Pinned top10_launch · Rebalance 0.1 | 0.22 | -11.5% | −57.1% | 2,391 |
| Channel 10 · Pinned top10_launch · Rebalance 0.2 | 0.24 | -6.1% | −53.3% | 1,984 |
| Channel 10 · Pinned top10_launch · Rebalance 0.3 | 0.29 | 2.3% | −48.4% | 1,729 |
| Channel 10 · Pinned top20_launch · Rebalance 0.1 | 0.54 | 30.5% | −47.8% | 5,060 |
| Channel 10 · Pinned top20_launch · Rebalance 0.2 | 0.57 | 35.7% | −42.4% | 4,227 |
| Channel 10 · Pinned top20_launch · Rebalance 0.3 | 0.59 | 38.2% | −37.5% | 3,676 |
| Channel 20 · Pinned top10_launch · Rebalance 0.1 | 0.55 | 32.6% | −46.7% | 2,037 |
| Channel 20 · Pinned top10_launch · Rebalance 0.2 | 0.69 | 55.1% | −42.6% | 1,619 |
| Channel 20 · Pinned top10_launch · Rebalance 0.3 | 0.73 | 60.8% | −39.5% | 1,335 |
| Channel 20 · Pinned top20_launch · Rebalance 0.1 | 0.80 | 78.4% | −43.3% | 4,306 |
| Channel 20 · Pinned top20_launch · Rebalance 0.2default | 0.86 | 86.2% | −40.4% | 3,426 |
| Channel 20 · Pinned top20_launch · Rebalance 0.3 | 0.89 | 87.3% | −37.6% | 2,859 |
| Channel 40 · Pinned top10_launch · Rebalance 0.1 | 0.47 | 20.4% | −51.4% | 1,675 |
| Channel 40 · Pinned top10_launch · Rebalance 0.2 | 0.54 | 31.7% | −46.8% | 1,274 |
| Channel 40 · Pinned top10_launch · Rebalance 0.3 | 0.53 | 30.2% | −42.3% | 1,018 |
| Channel 40 · Pinned top20_launch · Rebalance 0.1 | 0.69 | 55.3% | −49.1% | 3,598 |
| Channel 40 · Pinned top20_launch · Rebalance 0.2 | 0.71 | 58.4% | −46.4% | 2,715 |
| Channel 40 · Pinned top20_launch · Rebalance 0.3 | 0.76 | 63.4% | −42.5% | 2,213 |
The data
Monthly returns
| Month | Return |
|---|---|
| 2024-08 | 0.0% |
| 2024-09 | +7.5% |
| 2024-10 | -11.0% |
| 2024-11 | +55.0% |
| 2024-12 | -3.7% |
| 2025-01 | -28.3% |
| 2025-02 | +44.9% |
| 2025-03 | -11.3% |
| 2025-04 | +13.9% |
| 2025-05 | +4.9% |
| 2025-06 | -15.7% |
| 2025-07 | +6.7% |
| 2025-08 | -14.6% |
| 2025-09 | +15.8% |
| 2025-10 | -0.8% |
| 2025-11 | +14.5% |
| 2025-12 | +0.8% |
| 2026-01 | +16.8% |
| 2026-02 | +19.2% |
| 2026-03 | -14.3% |
| 2026-04 | -9.5% |
| 2026-05 | +7.8% |
| 2026-06 | +2.9% |
| 2026-07 | -3.1% |
Which assets it traded
| Avg allocation | Days held | % of time held | Asset |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.0119 | 669 | 97.1 | BNB |
| 0.0128 | 669 | 97.1 | BTC |
| -0.01 | 669 | 97.1 | DOGE |
| -0.0033 | 669 | 97.1 | ETH |
| -0.0034 | 669 | 97.1 | LINK |
| -0.0007 | 669 | 97.1 | SUI |
| -0.0127 | 669 | 97.1 | NEAR |
| -0.0013 | 669 | 97.1 | SOL |
| -0.0239 | 669 | 97.1 | WLD |
| -0.005 | 669 | 97.1 | XRP |
| -0.0214 | 669 | 97.1 | kBONK |
| -0.0176 | 669 | 97.1 | kPEPE |
| 0.0176 | 557 | 80.84 | HYPE |
| -0.009 | 542 | 78.66 | FARTCOIN |
| -0.0011 | 503 | 73 | VVV |
| -0.0148 | 340 | 49.35 | PUMP |
| -0.0227 | 297 | 43.11 | XPL |
| 0.0118 | 266 | 38.61 | ZEC |
| -0.0173 | 174 | 25.25 | LIT |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | GRAM |
What this is: a historical backtest on real Hyperliquid market data, net of fees, slippage, and funding. Its worst historical drawdown was 40.4% — expect drawdowns of that order or worse. Past performance does not predict future results, and this is not investment advice. Size your account so a full drawdown is survivable.