Backtested

We backtested 20 trading rules on crypto. Here is how each one did.

Each rule ran exactly as written on the top 10 Hyperliquid perpetuals at once, each coin with an equal share of the account, on the 4h and 1d charts, from 2024-08-15 to 2026-09-29, with fees, slippage and funding paid. A portfolio of 10 coins is a better test than one coin. It trades many more times, so one lucky or unlucky coin cannot decide the result, and its drawdowns are usually smaller because each coin's bad stretch hits only its share of the account. It lifts a result only when the rule works across coins; a rule that works on one or two coins looks no better here. Running one rule over a whole portfolio in a single backtest is what Keel is built for. A poor grade is as useful as a strong one: it is a rule you do not have to test with your own money.

By Keel Research Team
Updated October 15, 2026

Data through 2026-09-29

Every rule by grade

Every rule gets one grade from its portfolio results. Pick a rule to see its exact definition, every coin, the settings that mattered and the strategy itself, block by block.

OK

The rule cleared our bar on the portfolio in at least one run, or did well enough across all of them.

Keltner ChannelIchimoku CloudBreakout (Donchian / turtle)Momentum (trend following)Break of structure (BOS)EMA crossoverParabolic SARSupertrendADX
Weak

The rule made money on the portfolio in at least one run, but no run cleared our bar.

Golden crossOrder blocksMACDHeikin AshiRSIMean reversionStochasticBollinger BandsFair value gap (FVG)VWAP
Poor

The rule made no money on the portfolio in any run, or lost most of the account as the textbook writes it.

Liquidity sweep

Trend following

RuleGradeBest portfolio runSharpeRound trips
Ichimoku CloudOK1d, long only1.14153
Momentum (trend following)OK1d, long only1.11385
Parabolic SAROK4h, long only0.961,923
SupertrendOK1d, long only0.90100
ADXOK1d, long only0.8952
Heikin AshiWeak1d, long only0.63942

Moving-average crossovers

RuleGradeBest portfolio runSharpeRound trips
EMA crossoverOK1d, long only0.98164
Golden crossWeak4h, long only0.96145
MACDWeakOK with vol-targeted sizing4h, long only0.691,788

Bands and channels

RuleGradeBest portfolio runSharpeRound trips
Keltner ChannelOK4h, long only1.37514
Breakout (Donchian / turtle)OK1d, long only1.13174
Mean reversionWeak1d, long only0.4895
Bollinger BandsWeak1d, long only0.38130
VWAPWeak1d, long only0.2655

Oscillators

RuleGradeBest portfolio runSharpeRound trips
RSIWeak4h, long only0.53335
StochasticWeak1d, long only0.46198

Smart money concepts

RuleGradeBest portfolio runSharpeRound trips
Break of structure (BOS)OK1d, long only1.06154
Order blocksWeak1d, long and short0.7399
Fair value gap (FVG)Weak1d, long and short0.36288
Liquidity sweepPoorWeak with a 200-day trend filter1d, long only-0.40134