same window · same costs · same engine
Breakout vs Supertrend
Backtested on the same Hyperliquid perps over 2024-08-15 → 2026-07-05, at the same costs and on the same engine: Supertrend wins on risk-adjusted return, a Sharpe of 1.07 against 0.81. Supertrend rode out the shallower worst drawdown (27%), and Supertrend made the most in total. When Bitcoin was trending up, Breakout gained more; when it was falling, Supertrend held up better.
By Keel Research · Data as of 2026-07-05 · how these backtests were produced
Breakout Supertrendgrowth of $100, net of costs
- Net Sharpe
- 0.81
- Total return
- +77.7%
- Max drawdown
- −40.4%
- Trades
- 3,414
- Win rate
- 35%
Supertrendwinner
- Net Sharpe
- 1.07
- Total return
- +89.1%
- Max drawdown
- −26.7%
- Trades
- 471
- Win rate
- 64%
Run the winner — Supertrend
Supertrend came out ahead here (Sharpe 1.07 vs 0.81). Start it on your own Hyperliquid account, or fork it and change the settings first.
At $1,000, Supertrend's worst historical dip was about $267. Free account, your own keys — Keel only places the trades.
When each one wins
Total return while Bitcoin was trending up vs trending down (split by Bitcoin’s 100-day trend line).
| Market | Breakout | Supertrend | Higher return |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rising Bitcoin | -10.1% | -10.9% | Breakout |
| Falling Bitcoin | +101.8% | +115.9% | Supertrend |
What this is: a head-to-head backtest of Breakout and Supertrend on the same Hyperliquid window, costs and engine — net of fees, slippage and funding. The overlay is growth of $100 (normalized), not a return promise. A higher Sharpe is not a guarantee; both strategies draw down. Past performance does not predict future results, and this is not investment advice.
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