same window · same costs · same engine
ADX Trend vs MA Crossover
Backtested on the same Hyperliquid perps over 2024-08-15 → 2026-07-05, at the same costs and on the same engine: MA Crossover wins on risk-adjusted return, a Sharpe of 1.12 against 0.82. ADX Trend rode out the shallower worst drawdown (40%), and MA Crossover made the most in total. When Bitcoin was trending up, MA Crossover gained more; when it was falling, MA Crossover held up better.
By Keel Research · Data as of 2026-07-05 · how these backtests were produced
ADX Trend MA Crossovergrowth of $100, net of costs
- Net Sharpe
- 0.82
- Total return
- +65.4%
- Max drawdown
- −39.5%
- Trades
- 1,155
- Win rate
- 63%
MA Crossoverwinner
- Net Sharpe
- 1.12
- Total return
- +158.7%
- Max drawdown
- −45.7%
- Trades
- 1,414
- Win rate
- 79%
Run the winner — MA Crossover
MA Crossover came out ahead here (Sharpe 1.12 vs 0.82). Start it on your own Hyperliquid account, or fork it and change the settings first.
At $1,000, MA Crossover's worst historical dip was about $457. Free account, your own keys — Keel only places the trades.
When each one wins
Total return while Bitcoin was trending up vs trending down (split by Bitcoin’s 100-day trend line).
| Market | ADX Trend | MA Crossover | Higher return |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rising Bitcoin | +100.2% | +100.4% | MA Crossover |
| Falling Bitcoin | -16.8% | +29.1% | MA Crossover |
What this is: a head-to-head backtest of ADX Trend and MA Crossover on the same Hyperliquid window, costs and engine — net of fees, slippage and funding. The overlay is growth of $100 (normalized), not a return promise. A higher Sharpe is not a guarantee; both strategies draw down. Past performance does not predict future results, and this is not investment advice.
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