Regime-Gated Crypto Index (Risk-Managed, Top-15)

How it works

Crypto has two structural features this strategy leans on: trends persist for long stretches, and crashes tend to grind lower over weeks rather than gap in a single day. It holds a broad, equal-weight basket of the top-15 perpetuals by volume at full 1x exposure — but only while BTC, the asset that leads the whole complex, trades above its 100-day trend line. When BTC closes below that line, the strategy goes entirely to cash: no shorting, no leverage, one switch. The basket is deliberately simple; the BTC risk-off switch is the edge, stepping out ahead of the worst of a downturn.

When it works best

It profits in BTC uptrends: while BTC holds its 100-day line, the strategy rides the full basket and compounds the up-leg. Breadth beyond the four majors adds diversification without giving back much return, up to around 12–15 names. A plain always-invested version of the same basket lost money over the window — the gate is what turns it positive.

When it struggles

Two conditions hurt. First, whipsaws: when BTC chops back and forth across its trend line, each false switch costs an exit, a re-entry and a re-entry lag. Second, and more important, beta drawdown inside risk-on periods — the gate only reacts to BTC's trend, so a sharp basket sell-off while BTC is still above its line is absorbed in full. That is why the worst drawdown was 42.5% even with the gate. This is a risk-managed index, not a low-risk one — that drawdown is genuine crypto beta the switch does not remove.