Keel's free risk reward calculator takes your entry, stop loss and take profit and returns the trade's risk to reward ratio and the win rate you need to break even at it. Add your account size and risk per trade to get the position size, the amount at risk and the profit at target.
BTC about $80,716 (price on Oct 15) · up to 40x · funding 0.00125%/h
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You risk 3,228.6 to make 6,457.3 a unit. Trades like this break even if 33.3% of them reach the target, before fees.
$2,500.03 of notional at entry.
Position notional divided by account size. Hyperliquid allows up to 40x on BTC.
Every trade you plan has three prices: where you get in, where you get out if you are wrong, and where you take profit if you are right. The ratio compares the two distances.
risk = |entry − stop loss|
reward = |take profit − entry|
risk to reward = 1 : (reward / risk)A long at 100 with a stop at 95 and a target at 115 risks 5 to make 15, so it is 1 : 3. A short at 100 with a stop at 104 and a target at 92 risks 4 to make 8, so it is 1 : 2. Traders usually quote risk first, so 1 : 3 means three units of reward for every unit of risk. Some write it the other way round as 3 : 1 reward to risk. It is the same trade.
A ratio is only half of an edge. The other half is how often the target is hit before the stop. The win rate at which a run of trades like this one exactly breaks even is:
breakeven win rate = 1 / (1 + reward / risk)| Risk to reward | Breakeven win rate |
|---|---|
| 1 : 0.5 | 66.7% |
| 1 : 1 | 50.0% |
| 1 : 1.5 | 40.0% |
| 1 : 2 | 33.3% |
| 1 : 3 | 25.0% |
| 1 : 5 | 16.7% |
Wider targets need fewer winners, but they are also reached less often. A target three times further away than the stop is not three times better if price gets there a third as often. Judge the ratio and the win rate together, the way the win rate calculator does from a trade record.
The ratio says nothing about how much to trade. Position size comes from the stop and the share of the account you are willing to lose on one trade. Risking 1% of a $10,000 account is $100. If the stop is 5 away from entry, you can hold 20 units, so a stop-out costs exactly $100 and the target pays $300.
amount at risk = account × risk %
position size = amount at risk / risk per unitA tight stop means a large position for the same dollar risk. If the position is worth more than the account, it needs leverage, which the calculator shows. On perpetual futures that is normal, but check the stop sits well inside your liquidation price with the liquidation calculator.
The calculator assumes your stop fills at the stop price and your target at the target price. In practice a fast market can gap through a stop, every trade pays fees on the way in and out, and a perpetual futures position pays or receives funding while it is open. Each of these makes the real risk a little bigger and the real reward a little smaller. The effect is largest on tight stops, where a fee is a bigger share of the distance.
The bigger question is how often a setup like yours reaches its target first. One trade cannot tell you. Hundreds can, and they also show how a run of losses would hit the account; the risk of ruin calculator turns a win rate, a ratio and a risk per trade into the odds of a drawdown you can't recover from.
Keel is a strategy builder for Hyperliquid. Describe an idea, backtest it with fees, slippage and funding, and run it live on Hyperliquid’s crypto perps. Start free, and connect a wallet when you’re ready to trade.
Risk is the distance from entry to stop loss and reward is the distance from entry to take profit. Divide reward by risk. A long at 100 with a stop at 95 and a target at 115 risks 5 to make 15, a risk to reward of 1 : 3. For a short, the stop sits above entry and the target below; the distances work the same way.
One that your win rate can carry. At 1 : 1 you need to win more than half your trades, at 1 : 2 a third, and at 1 : 3 a quarter, before fees. Many traders look for 1 : 2 or better, but a 1 : 1 setup that wins 60% of the time makes more than a 1 : 3 setup that wins 20%.
It is if you win more than 40% of trades like it. At 1 : 1.5 the breakeven win rate is 1 / (1 + 1.5) = 40%. A strategy that wins 45% at 1 : 1.5 makes 0.125 times its risk per trade before costs.
You risk one unit to make three. If you risk $100 per trade, a winner pays $300 and a loser costs $100. You can be wrong on three trades out of four and still break even before fees.
The breakeven win rate is 1 / (1 + reward to risk). At 1 : 2 that is 33.3%, at 1 : 3 it is 25%, and at 1 : 0.5 it is 66.7%. Fees, funding and slippage push it a little higher. The win rate calculator works the other way round, from your trade record.
The stop. Put it where the trade idea is proven wrong, then size the position so that hitting it costs the share of the account you chose. Moving the stop closer just to improve the ratio makes it more likely to be hit, which lowers the win rate the ratio depends on.